Year over Year Average Home Price Declines
Saskatoon January 5, 2019
Year over year average sale price was down 12% in January at $302,412. By comparison, the average price in January of 2017 and 2018 was $341,260 and $344,720 respectively. The challenge with averages is that the numbers can be skewed in a given period and are therefore not a reliable reflection of pricing. For this reason, the Canadian Real Estate Association created the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) for major cities to give a more accurate reflection of pricing trends. The HPI establishes attributes for a handful of typical housing styles; Single Family, One Storey, Two Storey, Townhouse, Apartment and a composite of all five. It then establishes a base value to each with the starting point of 2005. From that starting point, changes in value are recorded over time to get a better sense of what is happening to pricing and where prices may be trending. For example, the MLS® HPI value for a typical Single-Family home in January of 2005 was $140,400. This value reached its peak in May of 2015 at $329,500. At the end of January 2019, this value is at $304,300, down from $307,300 in last January. This indicates a less drastic decline in year over year values. By comparison, five years ago this benchmark price was $320,800 and ten years ago $268,200. For more information on HPI go to contact a member of the SRAR or visit saskatoonrealtors.ca.
The total MLS® dollar volume for sales in the Saskatoon Region for January was $84M down 6% from a year ago and comparable to 2017. In spite of this dollar volume decline, January residential home sales on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in Saskatoon totaled declined by only 1% in January with 199 transactions. The region surrounding Saskatoon had 60 MLS® sales in January, only five less than last January and 18% more than January 2017.
Residential MLS® listing totals for January was the lowest in the past six years with 555 new listings introduced to the market, 10% lower than last January. For the market surrounding Saskatoon, the number of new MLS® listings was unchanged from a year ago with 216 units listed on the market. “New listings to the market are not always houses being introduced for the first time to the market.” comments Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® (SRAR). “Often new listings are homes that did not sell in the initial listing attempt and are relisted, often at a revised price.” The total number of active listings as at the end of last month was 1,450 compared with 1,529 last year. “It’s positive to see the overall number of active listings decline to prepare the way for prices to recover.” adds Yochim “some price ranges with still have a good supply to choose from while others will not. It’s important to remember that REALTORS® have the greatest access to available property” he adds.
REALTORS® work in the market every day, subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession. This is not the case for those who sell real estate in the province and who are not members of an association of REALTORS®.
- Jason Yochim
December residential home sales on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) in Saskatoon totalled 164 transactions, 20% fewer than December of 2017 which recorded 205 residential sales. The region surrounding Saskatoon had 43 MLS® sales in December of 2018, only one less than the previous December. The total annual number of residential home sales for 2018 in Saskatoon totalled 3,329 units. This is a 5% decline compared to the total number of home transactions for 2017. This represents the fourth straight year of a decline in annual home sales in Saskatoon. By comparison, there were 4,417 MLS® sales in 2014, an overall reduction of almost 25%. There was no change in the total annual sales for the surrounding region with 986 residential MLS® transactions.
The total dollar volume recorded for residential MLS® sales in Saskatoon in December was $55.6 million, down 20% from December 2017. The total dollar volume for the entire year reached $1.108 billion, 8% lower than 2017. The combined dollar volume for Saskatoon and region for last year was down 4% from 2017 at $1.524 billion.
Residential MLS® listing totals for the year continued to be lower than previous years. A total of 7,956 residential listings were recorded for Saskatoon on the MLS® System in 2018. This is an 11% reduction from 2017’s total of 8,969, representing over 1,000 fewer new listings. The five-year average for new listings in a calendar year in Saskatoon is 9,081.
“Even though overall sales are down, fewer new listings has helped contribute to fewer properties available to buyers in the Saskatoon market.” comments Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® (SRAR). The total number of active listings at the end of the year was 1,487, consistent with the five-year average of 1,480 available properties. The highest level of active properties was in July of 2017 when there were 2,210 active listings in the city of Saskatoon. “Available properties will vary depending on neighbourhood, price range and style.” cautions Yochim. “Some price ranges with still have a good supply to choose from while others will not. It’s important to remember that REALTORS® have the greatest access to available property” he adds. REALTORS® work in the market every day, subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession. This is not the case for those who sell real estate in the province and who are not members of an association of REALTORS®.
When it comes to home price trends, the best indicator of what is happening with home prices is the Home Price Index. The Home Price Index establishes attributes for a typical single-family home with a base value in 2005. From that starting point, changes in value are recorded over time to get a better sense of what is happening to pricing and where prices may be trending. The value for the typical single-family home in January of 2005 was $140,400. This value reached its peak in May of 2015 at $329,500. At the end of December, this value is at $307,000, down from $310,900 in November. This value is virtually unchanged from a year ago, however, it has been trending downward since the middle of 2018. For more information on HPI go to contact a member of the SRAR or visit saskatoonrealtors.ca .
Jason Yochim CAE, CRAE
The total number of residential home sales for the month of November in Saskatoon on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) totaled 203 units. This represents a 22% decline compared to the same month last year. The highest total for sales to the end of November was in 2014 reaching 4,203 transactions. This total has been steadily declining since with year to date sales at the lowest in ten years. At the end of last month there was a total of 3,167 residential MLS® transactions in the city, this is a 25% decline from the high of 2014.
Total new residential MLS® listings has also been declining since 2015 when there were 9,411 by the end of November. The total number of residential MLS® listings for Saskatoon as of November 30th was 7,646, a 12% decline compared to last year and a 19% decrease from 2015. Total active residential listings at the end of last month was 1,716, comparable to the five-year average and slightly higher than the 10-year average of 1,388. At the current rate of sales, it would take just over 8 months to liquidate the current active listing inventory. “The months of inventory has been steadily increasing from 3.8 months in November of 2012.” comments JasonYochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® (SRAR). “Even though homes in November were selling at 96.2% of the asking price, it still took two months for the average home to sell in Saskatoon” he added. The sales to new listing ratio helps to determine if it is a sellers or buyers’ market. It is considered to be a balanced market when the ratio is at 50%, a lower percentage than this is considered a buyers’ market and above, a sellers’ market. The sales to listing ratio in Saskatoon for November was 38%, favoring buyers.
Typically, when referencing home prices, the focus in real estate is often on the average price. The danger in this is that the average can be misleading and is easily skewed. Case in point, if there are more, higher priced homes that sell in a certain period than another comparable period, the average will be higher. The opposite could occur the following month resulting in a lower average. A better indicator of what is happening with home prices is the Home Price Index. The Home Price Index establishes attributes for a typical single-family home with a base value in 2005. From that starting point, changes in value are recorded over time to get a better sense of what is happening to pricing and where prices may be trending. The value for the typical single-family home in January of 2005 was $140,400. This value reached its peak in May of 2015 at $329,500. Currently this value is at $310,900. Even though this is up 0.8% from a year ago, it has been trending downward in the past 6 months very slightly. For more information on HPI go to contact a member of the SRAR or visit saskatoonrealtors.ca .
“It’s important to remember that even in a buyers’ market sellers can be successful in realizing a sale on their home” advises Yochim, “The most important step in selling is pricing a specific property to the current market conditions with the expertise of a professional REALTOR®”. REALTORS® subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession. This is not the case for those who sell real estate in the province and who are not members of an association of REALTORS®.
For further information, please contact:
Jason Yochim CAE, CRAE
The total number of new residential listings in Saskatoon on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) year to date totalled 7,111. This represents a 12% decline when compared to the same period last year with 8,065 properties listed. The total number of residential listings for Saskatoon and region year to date is 10,929, a 10% decline from last year. The individual month end totals for new listings in 2018 was down each month as well compared to 2017 totals.
This decline in new listings has contributed to lower inventory levels for available properties in Saskatoon. At the end of October there was a total of 1,808 active residential properties for sale in Saskatoon and 1,095 in the regional market surrounding Saskatoon. The five-year average for active listings in Saskatoon is 1,806 while the ten-year average is 1,487.
“Since 2015, the Saskatoon market has experienced higher inventories of active listings, this puts downward pressure on pricing and often upward pressure on the sales to new listing ratio.” comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. The median price of a home in Saskatoon has declined as well since 2015 as has the average price. The average residential price was $332,000 at the end of October, down 4% from a year ago and $20,000 from two years ago. Although much focus in real estate is on the average price, the average can be misleading and is easily skewed. A better indicator of what is happening with home prices is the Home Price Index. The Home Price Index establishes attributes for a typical single-family home with a base value in 2005.
From that starting point, changes in value are recorded over time to get a better sense of what is happening to pricing and where prices are trending. The value for the typical single-family home in January of 2005 was $140,400. This value reached its peak in May of 2015 at $329,500. Currently this value is at $312,600 virtually unchanged from a month earlier. The Benchmark price for a typical Townhouse style property in Saskatoon was $222,900 last month, for apartment style properties, $180,100 in October. For more information on HPI go to saskatoonrealtors.ca.Year to date, the total number of residential sales on the MLS® system in Saskatoon was 2,964, down 2% from last year. For Saskatoon and region the total number of sales was 4,074, a 1% decline from 2017. Total MLS® sales of 285 in Saskatoon for October was unchanged from the same month last year and but down 9% from October 2016.
“It's encouraging to see home sales at a comparable level to last year in spite of economic challenges and the “stress test” changes to financing earlier this year," comments Yochim. “It would seem that sellers are recognizing the importance of expert advice from our REALTOR® members in pricing to the current market.”
Year to date the average price of $332,700 for a home in Saskatoon represents a decline of 4% from a year ago. By comparison in the past three years, the third quarter average price was $347,165 in 2017 and $352,103 in 2016. Although much focus in real estate is on the average price, the average can be misleading and is easily skewed. A better indicator of what is happening with home prices is the Home Price Index.
The Home Price Index establishes attributes for a typical single family home with a base value in 2005. From that starting point, changes in value are recorded over time to get a better sense of what is happening to pricing and where prices are trending. The value for the typical single family home in January of 2005 was $140,400. This value reached its peak in May of 2015 at $329,500. Currently, this value is at $312,200 which is the highest level for 2018 and is virtually unchanged from a month earlier. The Benchmark price for a typical Townhouse style property in Saskatoon was $219,700 last month, this is the lowest point since April of 2007 when the value was $205,300. For apartment style properties, the Benchmark value of $176,200 in September was the first increase since December of 2007 when the value was at $190,600. For more information on HPI go to saskatoonrealtors.ca .
Active listings in Saskatoon continued to shrink with year over year decline of 7%. In Saskatoon at the end of September there were 1,944 active listings compared to 2,082 a year ago. Active listings are higher in the region surrounding the city which includes the cities of Martensville and Warman. At the end of September there were 1,161 available properties compared to 1,086 for the surrounding area. The decline in available properties is mostly attributable to an overall decline in new listings coming on the market. Year to date, there were 6,521 properties listed in the city of Saskatoon, a decline of 11% compared to 2017. In the month of September, there were 648 new listings in Saskatoon.
By comparison in September of 2017 there were 767 new listings and 779 in 2016. “It seems that sellers who are not highly motivated are choosing to wait until conditions are more favourable to sell.” Comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “Currently we are in a buyers market with elevated levels of inventory and downward trending prices for most properties.” He adds.
In the month of September, there were 268 residential sales on the MLS®. This is similar to September of 2017. The total number of sales for the first three quarters of 2018 was 2,679, a 5% decline from last year. By comparison, in the first three months of 2016, there were 2,935 sales in the city of Saskatoon.
REALTORS® subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession. This is not the case for those who sell real estate in the province and who are not members of an association of REALTORS®.
